Oscars 2011: Final Winner Predictions

Today is the last day Oscar voters have to turn in their ballot. So, I will not delay my predictions as they have been pretty much locked since Cannes last year. Before each category I give some thoughts as to why each film will win, etc.

The Artist should easily dominate this Sunday, no doubt, but read on to see my predictions, which are really just stating the obvious.

Best Picture:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here: Bridesmaids

Best Director:

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Will Win: Michel Hazavanicius, The Artist

Could Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Best Actor:

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Will Win: Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Could Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Should Have Been Here: Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

Best Actress:

Meryl Streep could easily take this because she has the Weinstein machine behind her, but I’m going to go with Viola Davis on this one. Davis elevates that simple movie that is The Help and made it into one of the best movies of the year (the other actresses helped too, but still). I do love Streep, and hope that one day she wins another Oscar, but it should not be this year.

Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Could Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Should Have Been Here: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Supporting Actor:

Max Von Sydow could upset in the category since he is Max Von Sydow and because his movie’s one other nomination is for Best Picture, but it shouldn’t be anyone else but Christopher Plummer. He gives one of the best performances of the year, and he’s won just about every other award in his category, so I’ll go with him.

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Could Win: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Should Have Been Here: Ben Kingsley, Hugo

Best Supporting Actress:

Octavia Spencer acts as a nice opposing force with her comedy in The Help compared to Davis’s more dramatic character, and her character is the juiciest of the bunch. As for the alternate, I should probably go with Berenice Bejo but I’m thinking Melissa McCarthy could surprise just like Marissa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny.

Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Could Win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Should Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Should Have Been Here: Amy Ryan, Win Win

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Descendants has to win something, so I’m predicting it will be for this. But Steve Zaillan and Aaron Sorkin did so much good stuff with Moneball that they are a very real threat.

Will Win: The Descendants

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: Moneyball

Should Have Been Here: The Help

Best Original Screenplay:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Midnight in Paris

Should Win: Bridesmaids

Should Have Been Here: Win Win

Best Art Direction:

Dante Ferretti’s work in Hugo is so dense and detailed that there’s no way that they won’t reward him. It’s a shame that Stuart Craig won’t ever be rewarded for making one of the best achievements in this field of all time.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: The Artist.

Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows- Part 2

Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life

Best Cinematography:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: The Tree of Life

Should Win: The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here: Drive

Best Costume Design:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Jane Eyre

Should Win: Hugo

Should Have Been Here: Water for Elephants

Best Film Editing:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: Hugo

Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life

Best Makeup:

Conventional wisdom will have you believe that The Iron Lady has this locked down, especially since a lot of people will watch it because of Meryl Streep. But the work in Harry Potter, from the goblins of Gringotts and the battle wounds are so good, and since this is the only time the franchise was nominated here, I just have to predict it.

Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows- Part 2

Could Win: The Iron Lady

Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

Should Have Been Here: Green Lantern

Best Original Score:

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Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: War Horse

Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Should Have Been Here: Hanna

Best Original Song:

“Real in Rio” has exotic sounds and is co-written by Sergio Mendes, a legendary musician that most of the old members of the Academy may be familiar with. “Man or Muppet” is written by a comedian and is sung by hand puppets. There’s no way Rio loses, sadly

Will Win: “Real in Rio”

Could Win: “Man or Muppet”

Should Win: “Man or Muppet”

Should Have Been Here: “Life’s a Happy Song”

Best Sound Editing:

Hugo and War Horse are the most prestigious of the bunch, so it is between them, so I’ll give the edge to the one that got the most nominations. It would be a well deserved win, though.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: War Horse

Should Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Should Have Been Here: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Sound Mixing:

See Sound Editing explanation

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: War Horse

Should Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Should Have Been Here: Hanna

Best Visual Effects:

Not since Death Becomes Her won in this category in 1992 has a movie with no nominations in other categories won this award, which is why I’m going with Potter since other than Hugo it is the most prestigious of the bunch, and of those two it is the one with the most obvious effects. But don’t count out Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

Could Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Should Have Been Here: Tree of Life

Best Animated Feature:

What a weak category this year.

Will Win: Rango

Could Win: Chico & Rita

Should Win: Puss in Boots (:\)

Should Have Been Here: Winnie the Pooh

Best Documentary:

I know next to nothing about the nominees so I’ll go with Paradise Lost 3 because of its timeliness, and Pina as an alternate because of Win Wenders.

Will Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Could Win: Pina

Should Win: abstain

Should Have Been Here: Abstain

Best Foreign Language Film:

I also know next to nothing about this category so I’m going with the one that has a nomination outside of this category, and has won the most awards this year. In darkness is supposedly it’s only competition, so I’ll put that as an alternate.

Will Win: A Separation

Could Win: In Darkness

Should Win: abstain

Should Have Been Here: abstain

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2 thoughts on “Oscars 2011: Final Winner Predictions

    • I agree, but it feels like there will be a “Slumdog Millionaire” type of sweep, meaning they will most likely check off “The Artist” in any category they see it.

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